Weather Conditions At The Kentucky Derby

Let’s face it, nothing can potentially upset the outcome of a sure thing horse race like extremely bad weather. The weather conditions at the Kentucky Derby are no exception to this rule, and since it is the policy of the show runners at the famous Churchill Downs to run the “Race for the Roses” every year, rain, shine, sleet or snow. Sure, a lightning storm or a severe washout of the track might delay the start of the race, but retty much the only thing that could possibly get “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” cancelled altogether is a meteor impact.

Here’s the thing: we are coming up on the 144th annual running of the Kentucky Derby this year, and the race has never been cancelled in its entire history.

That does not, however, mean that there have not been plenty of times when rain leading into the race, even almost immediately before the gates opened, has not made the track an absolute mess of mud, or that the temperature has not been so low as to be uncomfortable even for the horses. On the contrary, freak weather occurrences like that have happened all the time over the many years that the race has been run. Because those of us here at KentuckyDerbyPreview.com are keen horse racing bettors just like you, we want to keep our readers in the know about the current weather forecast for the upcoming race, while also giving you a better idea how various weather conditions can affect horses and races more generally.

Understanding how the weather can impact the Kentucky Derby is one of the most crucial elements of successfully picking the winner when you decide to get in on the action of betting on this world-famous annual event. When the starting gates open at post time in Louisville come May 5, you can bet the horses will do what horses do – they will run – so do not under any circumstances let a little bad weather deter you from placing a wager on the Kentucky Derby this year. If you are savvy about how the weather can affect the race when you make your pick of the horse you like, you could even get the chance to cash out a huge winning betting slip on Derby Day!

There have been numerous instances of inclement weather throwing a major kink in the best laid plans of race organizers going into the Kentucky Derby. Even the fans themselves may get caught unawares if they decide to attend the historically significant event in person – there is no way to really know for sure whether you should pack a chic rain jacket (umbrellas are banned because they obscure the view of other attendees in the stands) or SPF 100 sunblock. Personally, the whole giant hats and seersucker suits thing is not our scene – we’re horse racing bettors, not high-society folks - but many people absolutely love the pageantry and pomp of showing up to the Kentucky Derby in high style.

The real issue here is not whether the ladies’ fancy hats are going to get blown away by a windy spring shower or if the fellows will be sweating through their tweed jackets in the hours and minutes before the gates open. Rather, the current Kentucky Derby weather forecast is primarily going to be of interest to hardcore horse racing bettors like our devoted readership. The weather in Kentucky in the springtime is highly variable and largely unpredictable, so be sure to check out the information below for the most accurate current weather forecast available before you lock in your wagers on the Kentucky Derby this year.

KentuckyDerbyPreview.com has already mentioned it several times in passing, and it really goes without saying, seeing as horse racing is quite obviously an outdoor only activity, but not that many fans (except serious horse racing bettors, of course) really have a solid understanding of how weather impacts the Kentucky Derby. This annual event, which marks its 144th start in 2018, has seen long stretches of inclement weather and many instances of clear skies but chilly temperatures and seemingly every conceivable combination in between. In the next few sections we will take a closer look at how weather conditions like the temperature, wind and rain can potentially make life miserable for the fans or make the race difficult for the horses and jockeys.

Depending on how you use this knowledge, you could stand a better chance of winning big once you decide to get in on the action of betting on the Kentucky Derby.

Extreme Temperature At The Kentucky Derby

Even if the skies are clear of impending rain and have been for days leading up to the start of the “Race for the Roses,” extreme temperature at the Kentucky Derby plays a tremendously important role in how some horses will on the big day. Temperatures ranging from highs of 94 degrees Fahrenheit (that’s 33.3 degrees on the Celsius scale for our readers outside the US) to lows of 36 degrees Fahrenheit (2.22 degrees Celsius) have been recorded at Kentucky Derbies past. The temps were so low in 1989 that there was even sleet on the track for the first time ever at that year’s running of the prestigious horse race.

While some experts contend that horses are ideally suited for running in the cold, just as many breeders (who could be expected to know the individual horses in their stables at an intimate level) will tell you that their ponies do not perform as well on the track when temperatures get to high or low. It makes plenty of sense, as practices and training sessions are often conducted under ideal or close to perfect circumstances to get the most out of a workout, so if a horse is not used to running in extremely hot or cold weather it obviously will have an impact on performance. Still, the numbers don’t lie: there are in actual fact only marginal differences in terms of fastest lap times recorded between summer and winter races, even if those respective seasons can affect a horses overall fitness levels going into the Kentucky Derby.

High Wind At The Kentucky Derby

Another of the weather condition horseplayers should be on the lookout for when deciding to bet on the outcome “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” is the threat of high wind at the Kentucky Derby. Random gusts of higher than normal wind most often crop up during colder weather, but it is hard to tell just what will happen regarding the Kentucky Derby, as the race takes place right at the cusp of the springs months when the weather is especially variable. For instance, a gust of wind of 35 miles per hour could spring up on the morning of the race and persist well into the afternoon but then die down to almost nothing by the time starting gates open. High wind, like most other elements of inclement weather seems to play havoc with the bettors more so than they do with the horses actually running in the race.

That being said, if there is unexpectedly high wind at the time of the race, you can generally expect slower start times and slower finishes overall as horses that tend to lose steam sooner than others will encounter increased resistance from the windy conditions. Accordingly, handicappers that place their bets based on the knowledge of strong winds – either headwinds or tailwinds – will have the advantage over other betters that may simply study the past performances of a particular horse and rider pair. Knowing the capabilities of the horses in the field is as much of a boon to bettors as knowing which way the wind is blowing – literally – on race day.

Heavy Rain At The Kentucky Derby

Experts and historians have estimated that roughly 46 percent of all Derby Days have featured rain at some point during the run up to the start of the race. While nobody knows just how this year’s running will turn out in terms of cloudy skies, the fact is that springtime in the South is always a toss-up when it comes to what the weather will do, so it is often bettor to err on the side of caution and predict that it will rain. Rarely has it ever being raining as the race was actually underway, but the real threat posed to previously successful horses by heavy rain at the Kentucky Derby is the possibility of rain creating a much sloppier, muddier racing surface for horses and riders to have to deal with.

Track conditions have been pretty dire indeed at various points throughout the long history of the Kentucky Derby, and though there is no early indication that will be the case in time for the 144th annual running of the “Race for the Roses,” it is always a cause for concern. That is because not every horse is a “mudder,” or a horse that performs well in less than ideal track conditions, whether that’s a sticky clay track with lots of clods or a slushy mess right after a heavy downpour. Additionally, the jockeys themselves may find their abilities to ride and direct their horses impeded, especially with regard to their vision and their stability on the horse, by heavy rain and mud flying everywhere. Most jockeys are only a shade heavier than 100 pounds (soaking wet), after all!

Though “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” has never been cancelled due to inclement weather, there have been plenty of scares over the years since the first running of the now historic event way back in 1875. Historical Kentucky Derby Weather has run the gamut from the coldest ever Derby Day (36 degrees F on two instances – 1940 and 1957) to the hottest (94 degrees F in ’59) to the day with the most rainfall (almost two and a half inches of rain fell a hundred years ago for the 1918 edition). Conversely, there have been long periods of time with utterly dry Derby Days like the 11 year long stretch between the first race and the 1886 running, although close to half of all yearly editions have featured precipitation at some point during the week prior to the start of the Kentucky Derby.

The 2017 running of the Kentucky Derby was one of the years with the worst weather forecasts among races in recent memory, as there was a 90 percent chance of rain predicted throughout the day of the race. In fact, many forecast models showed the chance for precipitation bouncing between 25 and 40 percent right up until post time, which turned the famous 10 furlong clay track (that’s a whopping 1.25 miles in length!) into a veritable slip and slide. That combination of negative factors favored the eventual winner, Always Dreaming, and his rider, John Velasquez, both of which have plenty of experience riding it out on wet tracks and allowed them to get the edge over some of the early leaderboard favorites like Lookin’ At Lee, Battle of Midway and Classic Empire.

Having a solid understanding of the historical Kentucky Derby weather trends is an important aspect of handicapping the race from a bettor’s perspective. Horseplayers that have a thorough grasp on how weather conditions at the Kentucky Derby impact the race are automatically more likely to pick the best horse to get the job done on Derby Day. If you are interested in placing wagers on the Kentucky Derby, do not neglect studying up on the weather from past races, how the horse and rider of your choice perform in all sorts of bad weather and do not by any means overlook the current weather forecast going into this year’s event.

If you stick to those guidelines, then you have a better than average chance of accurately handicapping the “Race for the Roses” this year and collecting a big payday on Derby Day.