Why Post Positions Matter
It may be the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports”, but there are a lot of considerations to be made when making your picks for the Kentucky Derby. While some of these factors include weather, track conditions, and overall pedigree, post position should also play a role.
The 2018 Kentucky Derby post draw took place on Tuesday and while the favorites still remain favored, many of the three-year-olds saw their odds shift.
Post positions matter because it determines how far of a distance a horse will have to run. The shortest distance on a typical oval track is near the rail, but there are caveats.
While a rail position is ideal for most jockeys, being too close means that your horse can potentially get blocked in by other horses if not able to break fast from the gate. If the horse is in the #1 post position and gets boxed in, he will lose momentum after having to slow down to go around the other horses.
Ideally, the horse will be positioned close enough to the rail to have a shorter distance, but far away enough to avoid some of the crowding and dirt kickback that comes with being too close.
To help put things into perspective, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 position since Ferdinand in 1986, the #2 since Affirmed in 1978, or the #3 since Real Quiet in 1998.
Last year, Always Dreaming won from the No. 5 position, which historically has an 11.4 Win percentage – the best average finish in Kentucky Derby history.
Knowing how post position impacts finishing in the money can also be valuable, especially for those betting Exactas or Trifectas. Since 1930, 29.6 percent of horses in the No. 10 position have finished in the money, while 28.4 percent started from the No. 2 position.
While post position should not be the sole factor that goes into selecting your Kentucky Derby winner, it is definitely worth taking into consideration.
Here are the post positions and current betting odds for the 2018 Kentucky Derby:
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firenze Fire | Jason Servis | Paco Lopez | 66/1 |
| 2 | Free Drop Billy | Dale Romans | Robby Albarado | 35/1 |
| 3 | Promises Fulfilled | Dale Romans | Corey Lanerie | 50/1 |
| 4 | Flameaway | Mark Casse | Jose Lezcano | 45/1 |
| 5 | Audible | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 13/2 |
| 6 | Good Magic | Chad Brown | Jose Ortiz | 8/1 |
| 7 | Justify | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 7/2 |
| 8 | Lone Sailor | Tom Amoss | James Graham | 50/1 |
| 9 | Hofburg | Bill Mott | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 15/1 |
| 10 | My Boy Jack | Keith Desormeaux | Kent Desormeaux | 18/1 |
| 11 | Bolt d'Oro | Mick Ruis | Victor Espinoza | 17/2 |
| 12 | Enticed | Kiaran McLaughlin | Junior Alvarado | 25/1 |
| 13 | Bravazo | D. Wayne Lukas | Luis Contreras | 60/1 |
| 14 | Mendelssohn | Aidan O'Brien | Ryan Moore | 5/1 |
| 15 | Instilled Regard | Jerry Hollendorfer | Drayden Van Dyke | 60/1 |
| 16 | Magnum Moon | Todd Pletcher | Saez | 15/2 |
| 17 | Solomini | Bob Baffert | Flavien Prat | 22/1 |
| 18 | Vino Rosso | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 12/1 |
| 19 | Noble Indy | Todd Pletcher | Florent Geroux | 30/1 |
| 20 | Combatant | Steve Asmussen | Ricardo Santana Jr. | 66/1 |
| Race Day: |
| May 5, 2018 |
| Post Time: |
| 6:46pm EST |
| Horse Track: |
| Churchill Downs |
| Track Location: |
| Louisville, Kentucky |
| Track Length: |
| 1.25 Miles |