Mendelssohn The Derby Darkhorse

The last time a European-trained horse won the Kentucky Derby was never. In the race’s 143-year history leading into the 2018 Kentucky Derby this Saturday (May 5, 6:45 PM, CBS), 36 European born-and-Thoroughbred Grade 1 stakes racers have tried to take the Run for the Roses, and all have failed. Only one Eurohorse has ever even made the podium at the Derby, when Bold Arrangement came in second in 1986. However, this year, Mendelssohn – trained by Aidan O’Brien – could be the first European Kentucky Derby champion in the race’s history.

If you look at Mendelssohn’s recent history (he just set a course record at the 2018 UAE Derby and won by nearly 20 lengths), he is a dark horse powerhouse that flew under the radar until very recently, mirroring the ascension of Kentucky Derby favorite Justify (+300). At +500 on most sportsbooks’ and racebooks’ betting boards, Mendelssohn is considered a likely upset to win the rose garland this weekend.

Mendelssohn, who was purchased as a yearling for an astronomical $3 million, represents both Europe’s and the UK’s best chance – perhaps ever – to take the first leg of the American Triple Crown. If the Irish horse manages to pull of the mild upset win, he will be the favorite going into the Preakness Stakes two weeks after the Derby.

All that said, the truest dark horse in the 2018 Kentucky Derby is a California colt by the name of Bolt d’Oro. Just a month ago, when Kentucky Derby futures odds were first released at Bovada, BetOnline, and other prominent online racebooks, Bolt d’Oro was a fairly heavy favorite – and neither Mendelssohn nor Justify were anywhere near the top of the betting boards. However, after Justify defeated Bolt d’Oro at the Santa Anita Derby just last month, the latter pony fell down the boards into the tail end of the top pack of contenders. That could be a mistake, as Bolt d’Oro was visibly lackadaisical in his Santa Anita loss, which for him came after a particularly grueling Derby qualifier just a few weeks prior.

KentuckyDerbyPreview.com knows regardless of which horse sprints out in front of the pack to take the Kentucky Derby, this year’s running is sure to be action-packed, with a field of strong Thoroughbreds among whom there could be a number of potential winners. Audible (13/2, +650), Good Magic (8/1, +800), and Magnum Moon (15/2, +750) could all cruise to an upset finish. If you’re going to be wagering on the Kentucky Derby this weekend, you should strongly consider boxing a trifecta or superfecta with a selection of these top horses.

If you sign up at Bovada right now, you can still get +900 odds – a very good payout – on Bolt d’Oro to win the Run for the Roses. However, if you wait too long, those odds will probably shrink considerably once the official Derby field is set. Still, once you can get odds on an exacta featuring Bolt d’Oro and Justify to finish one and two (and/or vice versa), you might want to jump on that. Last year’s Derby paid out almost $340 on a $2 exacta.

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