McKinzie Out of the Derby

If you’ve been following the horse betting world for the past few months in the run up to the Run for the Roses, you’ve probably noticed that one prominent Thoroughbred suddenly disappeared from the top of the futures boards at all the major online racebooks like Bovada, SportsBetting, and BetOnline. That horse, McKinzie, was legendary trainer Bob Baffert’s star pupil for the 2018 season, and he was listed early on with odds as high as +600 at some bookmakers, in line with other erstwhile favorites. Well, McKinzie is out of contention for the first leg of the Triple Crown, and the following is why one of the best 3-year-old colts won’t be running in the Kentucky Derby.

During the circuit leading up to the Derby (essentially a series of points qualifiers to earn placement for the big race, called “The Road to the Kentucky Derby” or “Derby Trail”), McKinzie was entered into the 2018 San Felipe Stakes Grade II race along with another presumed top contender in Bolt d’Oro.

Both horses would need a strong finish in the money to continue their qualifying paces, and the race was even closer and more exciting than advertised. Towards the end of the final turn of the 1.063-mile (8.5-furlong) race, McKinzie was leading when Bolt d’Oro made his move, jockeying next to the former and establishing position next to leader. As the two horses were neck and neck in the final straight, McKinzie’s jockey shifted his mount sideways, cutting off Bolt d’Oro’s potential advance on the diagonal. McKinzie would win by a head.

However, the “inquiry” light would be triggered as race officials looked into the supposed infraction. Down a straight, a race horse is not allowed to materially impede another horse’s forward progress (a concept akin to “screening” penalties in other sports). In a controversial decision, McKinzie was disqualified from the contest, Bolt d’Oro was crowned the champion, and – thanks to the lost qualifying points due to his jockey’s infraction and a hock injury that would keep him out of his final qualifying contest – McKinzie could not accrue enough points to seal what was once believed to be a surefire Kentucky Derby bid.

The aftermath of the call to DQ McKinzie naturally infuriated Baffert, but this would be short-lived, as just weeks later, another Baffert horse – the little-known, rarely-raced Justify – defeated Bolt d’Oro on the same course at the Santa Anita Derby in April, sending Baffert’s “replacement” colt up the betting boards into the favorite position (7/2, where he remains going into the 2018 Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 5).

For what it’s worth, KentuckyDerbyPreview.com knows Baffert also trains Derby competitor Solomini, though this horse is a longshot at 22/1 and will be starting out of the infamous Gate 17, which has never produced a single Kentucky Derby champion. (Expect Solomini to run pace or support for stablemate Justify.) As for McKinzie, the horse is questionable to return for the Preakness Stakes, though a Belmont Stakes appearance currently seems likely.

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