2018 Kentucky Derby Results

The 2018 Kentucky Derby results were something of a mixed bag, and they go to show precisely why betting on the ponies in the biggest race on earth is trickier than it seems. With so many strong horses at the top of the betting board, many folks were eager to cash in on a high-dollar wager like a trifecta or superfecta, where you can box even more horses to increase your odds without reducing your payout in any appreciable way. And while three of the top five favorites going into the race actually finished in the money – with overall favorite Justify winning easily (making this the sixth straight Kentucky Derby where the outright favorite won – the longest such streak in decades) – the rest of the results were all over the place.

While some might blame the 2018 Kentucky Derby results on the fact that Churchill Downs saw a record three inches of rain leading up to the sloppiest track in the race’s 144-year history, that doesn’t quite explain the poor performances of a handful of pre-race top favorites.

Consider the superfecta: This year’s payout on the $1 bet was $19,618.20. Why? Because the Derby’s longest-shot player, Instilled Regard at 90/1, finished fourth. Even boxing the superfecta with 7 or 8 horses, almost nobody had Instilled Regard included among the many strong, hyped horses they chose for their contenders.

Take Mendelssohn, the European superhorse who was hyped as the first potential Derby winner from overseas. He went off at 4/1 odds and finished dead last. That in itself wiped out tens of thousands of superfecta bids. Bolt d’Oro, the Derby favorite just two months ago, came into the race with 8/1 odds and finished 12th. Magnum Moon – who was already a strong contender before the rain (and trended that much better when the track turned to muck for the day) – had final odds of 13/1. He finished in 19th. Even My Boy Jack, whose odds went from 60/1 to 6/1 on raceday, couldn’t pull off the upset, finishing in fifth, right out of superfecta contention.

However, even though the superfecta paid out tremendously well for those who had the foresight to mix in a super longshot like Instilled Regard, the trifecta – itself a difficult bet to hit and traditionally worth several thousand dollars on a $1 ticket – had a meager payout of $141.40. That’s because the top three horses to finish the Kentucky Derby were all high-board favorites: Justify (5/2), Good Magic (9/1), and Audible (7/1).

Such is the trouble – and allure – of pari-mutuel style betting: you get paid based on how many other people have to split the pot. $140 for a winning trifecta simply means that tens of thousands of folks placed that exact same wager. And had you boxed the trifecta with six horses – normally a solid strategy – you’d have won a tiny $20 on a $120 bet. For something like horse racing, that risk isn’t remotely commensurate with the reward.

All this is to say what you already know: Horse racing betting – particularly at the Kentucky Derby when even the “worst” horse in the field is one of the best horses in the world – is exceedingly fickle. Not only does it pay to know your ponies, but it also pays to research how other folks are betting before you place any high-dollar exotics (particularly when boxing them). And never just pick the favorites, either. KentuckyDerbyPreview.com knows always slap in an underdog or two when boxing a big bet. Not only is the potential payout better, but a bottom-of-the-board dog seems to finish in the top four at the Kentucky Derby far more often than not.

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